Arrest made in SWAT standoff
Madison girls in state semifinals
2 vehicle crash at intersection
Hall of Fame baseball writer Hal McCoy has retired from the Dayton Daily News after covering the Cincinnati Reds for 37 years. Hal's blog, though, will continue to be a must-read for Reds fans. He'll share his thoughts on the team this season and will file updates from Great American Ball Park. You also can catch Hal in print every Sunday in his popular Ask Hal columnHome > Blogs > The Real McCoy | Cincinnati Reds baseball news > Archives > 2009 > November > 06 > Entry
What can the Reds possibly do?
The Empire won, as expected - even though it was the first time since 2000, even with baseball’s highest payroll every year since their previous championship in 2000.
I refrain from calling the New York Yankees the Evil Empire because they are playing within the rules, as skewered as the rules may be.
Their payroll this year was $220 million. Last winter they spent $450 million to sign three players to multi-year contracts - pitchers C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett, plus first baseman Mark Teixiera.
What to do? What to do? Here is an idea. Let’s break up the majors into two leagues - The Big Bucks League, for those teams who want to pay more than $100 million in salaries and The Spare Change League for those who want to pay less than $100 million.
This year, The Big Bucks League would have 11 teams:
NY Yankees $220,097,414
NY Mets $145,367,987
Chicago Cubs $134,058,500
Boston $122,435,399
Detroit $119,160,145
LA Angels $118,964,000
Seattle $112,053,666
Philadelphia $111,209,046
Houston $102,996,414
Chicago Sox $100,598,500
LA Dodgers $100,008,592
Absurd? Maybe so. Maybe it makes as much sense as the way things are done right now.
THAT BRINGS US to the Cincinnati Reds and what they can do? Disband? Join the Class AAA International League? Drop back 15 yards and punt?
Under current rules, there is no way, none, zip, nada that the Reds can ever win.
Some might say, “Well, the St. Louis Cardinals compete every year and their payroll this year was only $87.5 million.”
The Reds had the 17th highest payroll (out of 30) at $73.5 million, so what’s another $12 million? Well, it is a whole bunch when you don’t have it. And it is a whole bunch when your attendance took a horrendous downturn last season.
And the Reds front office already is on record as saying they won’t increase payroll. Probably it will be reduced.
What can you do when you start things off with four players owed $46 million next year - closer Francisco Cordero ($12 million), pitcher Aaron Harang ($12 million), pitcher Bronson Arroyo ($11 million) and third baseman Scott Rolen ($11 million)?
That leaves $27 million for the other 21 players and with the average salary in major-league baseball at $3.27 million, where does that leave the Reds? Mostly standing with empty cash bags.
General manager Walt Jocketty needs to do two things as fast as he can this winter: (One) Trade Cordero. (Two) Trade Harang.
By trading Cordero, the Reds not only save $12 million this year, they save $13 million next year. An expensive closer for a sub-mediocre team is an unnecessary evil. It’s a job Nick Masset can do.
By trading Harang, the Reds save another $11 million. Harang has had two straight down years, but he is still marketable. Several scouts told me late last year that their teams would be happy to deal for Harang.
BUT FOR 2010, that’s still only a savings of $23 million, which isn’t going to buy you much on the free agent market. Just look at how much the Yankees paid.
The Reds could only afford middle-of-the-road free agents and then they’re taking a chance. Will the guy be good or will he be an expensive flop. It’s one reason Jocketty says the Reds won’t dabble much in the free agent cash parties. And I don’t blame him.
There is only one way the Reds can win a division title. Every player, and that’s every player, has to have a season that is better than the back of his baseball card. How often does that happen? The nth of never?
They could get by with the same year from first baseman Joey Votto. If they can talk catcher Ramon Hernandez into taking a cut from his $8 million option and sign for maybe $3 million and he has a career year, that would help.
Brandon Phillips needs to return to his numbers of two years ago, not the year he had last year and he has to eliminate all the selfish things he does and the things he does that distracts from the team.
They need a better hitting shortstop than Paul Janish - and good luck with that.
They need Scott Rolen to hit more homers and hit .300 and stay healthy all year - and good luck with that.
They need to sign Jonny Gomes, who hit 20 home runs in about half a season. Indications are, though, that they won’t offer him arbitration.
They need Drew Stubbs to be the player he was in September and that’s possible. They need right fielder Jay Bruce to prove he can hit major-league pitching, something he hasn’t come close to doing that last season-and-a-half.
They need Arroyo to pitch even better than he did last year, pitch all year the way he did the second half. They need Homer Bailey to be the pitcher he was the second half. They need Johnny Cueto to come around the way Bailey did.
Those are all Big Needs - and good luck with that.
Permalink | Comments (26) | Post your comment |
Comments
By redsfandownunder
November 8, 2009 4:26 AM | Link to this
For those who continue to think that money is not an issue AND those who think Selig is a respectable commissioner who doesn’t have his head stuck in the sand (baseball revenue, steroids…) I encourage you to read this SI article: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/jon_heyman/09/28/playoff.payrolls/index.html
By Mike-Dayton
November 7, 2009 5:58 PM | Link to this
There are large market teams that win - Yankees, Angels … and that lose - Cubs, Mets. There are small market teams that win - Rays, Twins, A’s … and there are small market teams that lose - Reds, Pirates, Royals …… the difference is the management, scouting, target free agents signings and correct long-term signing of young talent. The Reds screw up all of the things required to be successful so whether they are large market or small market is irrelevant —- they simply don’t know what they’re doing from year to year and lose because of it. More payroll, salary cap won’t matter since they do not have a clue.
By j
November 7, 2009 3:46 PM | Link to this
Why worry so much about money? Look at the #2 on that list, the Mets. If only the highest-paying teams win, why didn’t the Mets get in? Money isn’t everything, it’s who you have on your team that counts; money is just factoring in how much they cost. A lot of teams waste a lot of money. The Reds are starting to show some promising players, and things are getting better. If attendance went up, revenue and payroll would, too. So, want to make a difference? Stop complaining about all the losing, go to games, and watch revenue increase.
By Mike-Cinci
November 7, 2009 2:19 PM | Link to this
The players union will never agree to a salary cap. They have said it a thousand times. I don’t blame them. The players are doing fine under the current system. There is some revenue sharing in baseball with virtually all of it coming from the Yankees. The owners of the big market teams will not agree to revenue sharing for the same reason the players won’t. Big markets are doing just fine. In the 1994 strike which was the last chance to get revenue sharing the media and many fans blasted the small market owners for killing the season and the World Series. I agree with those who say the only way for the Reds to compete is by building the farm system and being very smart about who they sign to long term contracts. Most other teams are trying to do the same things. If they happen to get smart the fans will need to fill the stadium so there is a decent revenue stream. Unfortunately the Reds have never drawn more than 2.6 million fans or more than 32,000 average per game in Riverfornt or GABP. The Big Red machine never drew more than 2.6 million and they played in a 55,000 seat stadium. Southeast Ohio/N. KY, SE Indiana is a small market with far fewer financial resources than the bigger towns. The Reds are like Indiana, Miami(Ohio) and Northwestern trying to compete with Ohio State in football. The resources are so very, very different.
By Tom
November 7, 2009 12:31 PM | Link to this
Two things come to mind. The Yankees continue to dominant baseball until the powers that be institute a salary cap. Second, make a blockbuster trade of Cordero and Phillips to shake up the Reds like the Joe Morgan trade did in 1970.
By Mr. Redlegs (Original)
November 7, 2009 12:03 PM | Link to this
So all these glorious Reds fans crying about the team needing to be more like the Twins, Marlins and Rays, but now that some farm-raised talent is finally starting to reach the top and the next wave is about to arrive, where are these wonderful fans? Staying away in drooves, complaining about a so-called cheap owner who, by most accounts, has never said no to one of his GMs for an acquisition. So when the team finally shows some promise for stability and talent, something to get excited about, these loyal fans put their money into the sorry, no-account Bengals, the losingest NFL team over the past 20 years. Then, these bedrock fans bellyache and moan about the Reds not being the Cardinals and making huge expenditures on free agents, but they don’t have the brains to realize that if you don’t put your azzes in the seats, there isn’t any money. It’s the simplest of economics. So don’t whine about payroll being reduced on a team $16 million in the red. You’re doing it to yourselves. For the first time since the late ’80s the Reds have some exciting young talent. Why are you so stupid not to support them? But you’ll throw your money at Mike Brown, who’s never done a thing for you. Zip.
By Scott
November 7, 2009 9:58 AM | Link to this
Revenue sharing? Why? What needs to happen is MLB needs divide all revenue from other sources (TV, merchandise, etc) to all 30 teams (regardless of which team gained the dollars). Anything such as money from TV contracts (YES for example) should be left alone until MLB has it’s own Network for broadcasting of games. They do now, but they don’t show enough games to where they are the primary source for broadcasting. Also trading for draft picks would be huge. Imagine if the Nats could have traded Strasburg for other picks + prospects + MLB ready players. They could have filled multiple needs -now- with the same $$$ than paying it to one guy (who will be rushed to the majors and fold under pressure / Mark Prior himself out of a career).
By ShockMonkey
November 7, 2009 9:38 AM | Link to this
One doesn’t want to be too negative but I have very little faith the Reds will anything other than .500 at best next year. So many challenges. You forgot to mention Dusty and Jacoby. I simply don’t see how we can win with these two. Thankfully, Baker won’t be here by this time next year.
By michael
November 7, 2009 8:43 AM | Link to this
Not picking up Ramon Hernandez for 8.5 mil, and letting Tavares go is a start. These guys were signed and sold to us as big tarnsactions, but they are utility players on good teams. We need a SS that can hit a little and a big bat LF’er. Masset is ready, so let CoCo go.
By TheNaturalMevs
November 7, 2009 8:40 AM | Link to this
It’s a deep rooted problem. If the fans of Cincinnati started packing the seats every single night, we wouldn’t have this problem. As it stands we’re always going to be in this situation. No reason to blame it on Bruce, Bailey, and the other youngsters. No matter what they did our ownership would still go cheap. lets be honest with ourselves.
By redsfanwoody
November 7, 2009 8:34 AM | Link to this
Man. What a way to start off a Saturday morning. The reality slap to the face about where the Reds are just puts a damper to the off-season. I was fortunate enough to make a trip to 5 different ball parks this year of mostly small market teams. It’s a small sample but in talking to fans of the teams they don’t have much hope competing against higher payrolls. And most think that the players union and MLB officials could care less.
By Mike-Dayton
November 7, 2009 7:52 AM | Link to this
Hal - Free Agency does not stop smaller-market teams from building winners, it keeps smaller-market teams from keeping the team together for more than three or four years. The Reds can’t build a winner from within or with trades because for the most part, they have no plan, below average management at the top and on the field and poor scouting. If the Reds had a payroll of $130M, it might had some of that fact (for awhile) but they would still have no plan, poor management and poor scouting _ and you can add poor free agents signed. By the way - five of your top ten payrolls failed to make the playoffs this year and three had losing records. The Reds lack any vision, plan, or thought about how to build a winning organization - payroll size is not the issue.
By Gary Maloy Jr.
November 7, 2009 4:25 AM | Link to this
CORRECTION: I meant 150 million. With 1,5 million, we’d be back to the early 1970’s. And the 150 is only a suggestion. Hal, you have Selig’s respect, have you ever discussed this with him? If not, maybe you should? Just a thought…
By Gary Maloy Jr.
November 7, 2009 4:01 AM | Link to this
Shane argues for an immediate salary cap and gets support from Scott. I don’t disagree, but in looking at the practicalities, an immediate salary cap can be difficult to put in place: what about the Yankees - HOW are they going to get on the right side of the cap within, say… five years? Unless their players are willing to restructure/reduce the numbers on their contracts, there needs to be a progessive start so that all the big market teams know that, for example, in 2015 they have to be under (for example) 1,5 million. I’m not sure about how Scott’s suggestion of trading of draft picks can contribute to a level playing field - especially in the short term. But there is one thing (barely mentioned by Mike-Cinci) that needs to be done and which CAN be implemented immediately: revenue sharing. Shall we say 70% of income from YES and the sale of Yankee clothing and memorabilia is put in a pot with the same from ALL the teams in baseball. Then these funds are evenly distributed to all the teams in baseball. The Yankees still get to retain 30% as motivation for the owners, but the playing field would be a heckuva lot more even. And if the Steinbrenner family don’t sign off on it? Then they pack up and start their own league. They’d come back to the pack soon enough - it’d be tough to play in a 4 team league. The owners have caused the problems in baseball - they have no one else to blame. Now they have to swallow the foul medicine. Recapping: first revenue sharing, then a salary cap from a point in the not-too-distant future. Only this will guarantee that MLB will survive its own form of cannibalism.
By Jim M.
November 6, 2009 2:43 PM | Link to this
So Hal, You mean I need to root for a big market team as my beloved Reds have zero chance for the rest of my breathing years?? It makes me sick that The Reds will cry poverty and say not enough fans come to the games to increase payroll. PLEASE Walt even said when he was hired, He KNEW he had to bring a winner to entice fans to come to the games. Yes they did good at the end of the season, BUT big deal, did it get them in the playoffs? NO!!! And to see them WASTE $10 million on a Taveras and Lincoln for 2 years, then cry pity? I dont have pity.. They should have learned the lesson wasting 3.5 million on Patterson the year before.. NOOO they bring in Taveras when they already at the time had Dickerson and Hairston Jr to play CF. They need a huge bat batting 4th in LF.. They did zero last year and will do the same this year.. And that is what you want me as a fan to keep buying tickets to watch the Reds do zero every year and at the trading deadline not care to help this team?? Rolen should have been here in 2002!! not last year. To build a young team like the Marlins/D’Backs.. they should have went after Mark Reynolds ( he is young and CHEAP and a POWER hitter!!) for what they gave up for Rolen. Especially now that they cry they cant do anything in the off season. Never in my wildest dreams i would see the Bengals in 2 playoffs (if they keep doing well this year) EVER before the Reds would get back to the playoffs and i cant stand Mike Brown!! Heck fans are better off spending their season ticket money on the Bearcats. At least they are WINNING!!! and have done it 2 years in a row. This is what fans want in Cincy. Losing sucks and I hate toi think the onlky thing I will see of a chamionship for the Reds is on display in the Reds Hall of Fame as there is no care to Win ever again.. Lip service doesnt get the job done, Doing it does!!
By dawgtired
November 6, 2009 2:18 PM | Link to this
Here is a out of box idea. Trade COCO to the Rays for B J Upton. He has worn out his welcome there and needs to prove a point. The Reds may have to eat some of the Cordero contract but Upton could truly be lightning in a bottle. The Reds in order to relieve themselves of bad contracts may end up eating parts of them. Just a crazy thought from a crazy guy.
By Richard
November 6, 2009 12:14 PM | Link to this
Hal is dead on about next season. Sure small market teams can win, if done right. For now the Reds need to decide which road they are going to take next season. It is either keep CoCo, Rolen, Bronson, Harang or trade for very little in return, save the cash for the draft. When a team needs an Albert Pujos, a Willy Taveras just doesn’t cut it. So why bother? There is no middle ground or sky above, it is one or the other. Suffer as in the past few years or build for the future.
By scott
November 6, 2009 12:07 PM | Link to this
Great take Hal. Puts it in perspective. And should be a warning to the NFL owners as I believe 2010 will be uncapped.
By Scott
November 6, 2009 10:03 AM | Link to this
This is a problem all over baseball, and needs to be addressed. #1: Salary Cap. Capt it at $100 Million, and have a minimum of $75 Million. Some teams don’t want to pay to the cap? Fine, but at least the fans will know there is a somewhat level field. #2: Allow for trading of draft picks. If a team wants to trade a player at the deadline, and get picks in return, they then could bring up a guy from the minors faster to see if he is worthy of the bigs. These two things are needed in order to begin fixing this mess.
By HavaKlu
November 6, 2009 9:44 AM | Link to this
To trade Cordero, Jocketty will really have to be a wizard as the only teams in need of a closer can’t afford him. Philly is a wash because Brad Lidge is guranteed $23 million over the next two years. Harang or Arroyo are the most marketable.
By Mike-Cinci
November 6, 2009 8:04 AM | Link to this
Excellent analysis by Hal. He is on target. Small market teams can’t keep their good players. They leave for bigger money after year 6 or are traded for “prospects” because the team can’t sign them to affordable long term deals.Big market teams can charge higher prices for luxury boxes and seats. They own dedicated cable channels that reach millions enabling them to earn more advertising $. This type of revenue is not available to small markets. The Yankees YES channel and the Red Sox NESN channel generates millions of $ for the teams. Even if a small market team hits the jackpot for a year or two they fall back to average or worse soon after. Look at the history of the Marlins. The Rays came back to earth this year. The Rays just traded Hermida, a highly regarded 25 year old outfielder with high potential, to the Red Sox for prospects. Cleveland could not keep Sabbathia or Lee. The Rockies and Oakland could not keep Holliday. The Pirates have been trading or losing their best players for years. There will be more of this stuff this winter. The problem facing the Reds is unless one of the big money teams wants Cordero or Harang they won’t be able to trade them. Also no team will give them much in return because they know the Reds need to dump salary. It’s not fun playing big stakes poker with a guy who has more money than you. He has a lot more staying power and that is what has happened in baseball.
By Shane
November 6, 2009 8:00 AM | Link to this
The first thing the Reds and MLB needs is a salary cap. The Reds must trade cash cows like Harang, CoCo, and yes, even Bronson. Stop with the asinine contracts to players like Taveras. And fire Baker now. He will just need to be fired in the middle of next season anyway. Get it done with and bring in a task master.
By baseballguy-1
November 6, 2009 6:06 AM | Link to this
“What can the Reds possibly do?” your headline asks. Well, how about doing what the Twins, Rays, and Marlins do!!?? C’mon, Hal….don’t give us this “small market, small payroll” crap.
By dale
November 6, 2009 5:23 AM | Link to this
The Reds have to learn to spend money better . No more Taveras,Miltons or other stiffs, rebuild your farm system and hope for the best . Trade Harang for good prospects,there probably is no market for Cordero.
By Mike
November 6, 2009 3:23 AM | Link to this
Call the Phillies. They need a big time closer.
By Colorado HuberTucky
November 6, 2009 2:16 AM | Link to this
Go Rockies! And BTW, screw the Yankees. They are sickening. Owners like Steinbrenner and Reinsdorf and that fool in Texas (Rangers) who gave A-Roid that $252 mil contract are the villains who’ve truly trashed MLB for us regular fans. Now more than ever, it’s all about money.